Is Uncertainty the Same as the Unknown

 Is Uncertainty the Same as the Unknown

By Stephanie Ross


Us humans, crave certainty in our knowledge. We want to know that what we believe is 'the' truth and not 'our' truth. Black and white answers to questions are easiest to incorporate into everyday life. However, in science, finding definitive answers to challenging questions is not easy.  This can make it difficult for policymakers to know what policies to implement, especially on topics like climate change. 


No one can predict the future, but what we can do is create predictive models using past data to predict how climate change will affect future generations based on current data.  These predictive models may not be entirely accurate and might vary slightly in the predictions they provide. However, this does not diminish their value in offering insights. These variations in data from prediction models give the general public the impression that the overall theme of climate change is a subject of widespread debate among scientists. 


The uncertainties in data fuel the media’s argument that climate change overall is a hoax.  According to a 2023 Pew Research Study, only about half (54%) of Americans believe that global climate change is a large threat to the country. However, almost all scientists agree that some sort of climate change is occurring, and the effects are being increased due to human involvement.  Climate scientists have long proved that climate change is occurring and will be harmful to future generations, through a variety of methods including prediction models, fossil and CO2 emissions, and the increased study of climate change.  Despite the variations in models and results, there is still an overall consensus on the topic of climate change, even though many uncertainties inevitably remain.


Variations in results on the same scientific question can be seen with almost any topic. In her article, “Science Isn’t Broken,” previous FiveThirtyEight science author Christie Aschwanden highlighted an experiment where 29 professional research groups analyzed the same exact dataset. These groups were provided with identical data sets and a prompt: "Do soccer referees give more red cards to dark-skinned players than light-skinned ones?" Each team employed different methods to analyze the data, and as a result, each team obtained different results. There is no universally correct method for data analysis, and each approach can expand the boundaries of knowledge and impart distinct insights. However, when scientists yield divergent yet valid results, the public often perceives it as a lack of total consensus.


Due to these uncertainties, government officials often adopt a precautionary principle that guides their actions in situations of uncertainty. This principle normally entails refraining from taking significant actions to mitigate climate change, opting for cost-effective measures which are perceived as more economical (doing nothing would be the cheapest action for governments to take). Despite the substantial body of expertise asserting that humans play a significant role in climate change, the variability in specific climate change outcomes fosters doubt about the phenomenon as a whole. Nevertheless, as the Rio Declaration (a set of principles adopted at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Brazil) states “ lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective”. This implies that even in the presence of uncertainty about the extent of climate change's impact on future generations, it is still preferable to implement cost-effective measures now rather than await the future. This idea can be applied to many areas where there may be a variation in results. 


Although an exact consensus may never be reached, this does not imply that the data and results are invalid; it simply reflects the existence of numerous factors that can influence outcomes.




Works Cited


Aschwanden, Christie. “Science Isn't Broken.” FiveThirtyEight, FiveThirtyEight, 19 Aug. 2015, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/. 

United Nations. “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - UNFCCC.”, UN, June. 1992 https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/application/pdf/conveng.pdf 

Tyson, Alec. “What the data says about Americans’ views of climate change.” Pew Research, Pew Research Center, 9 Aug. 2023 

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