Oil Is Running Out, and It May Be for the Best

    More than half of the world's current population will live in a world of drastically reduced oil usage. This is assuming those who are currently 40 and under will live into the 2050s. The 2050s being the decade that oil supplies are expected to no longer meet global demand [1]. This is due to petroleum depletion. Humanity is consuming oil at an unsustainable rate. The human race consumes 100 million barrels of oil a day [2]. Many facets of modern living are enabled by oil. Fuels synthesized from oil are used to power cars, trucks, trains, and planes. Oil and other fossil fuels are widely used to generate electricity. Oil is also used as the basis of many critical products. Petroleum depletion will radically change how the world operates. Humanity will be forced to find alternative energy sources. This shift towards sustainable alternatives will not be easy. The oil industry is pervasive, and it will take immense effort to replace. However, petroleum depletion bodes well for the health of our planet.

    In the process of consuming oil, large quantities of greenhouse gases have been released into the Earth's atmosphere. In the United States, 74% of anthropogenic CO2 emission rates are due to the consumption of fossil fuels [3]. These greenhouse gases retain heat that would have otherwise left Earth's atmosphere. The release of greenhouse gases due to oil combustion has irreversibly affected the environment. Air and ocean temperatures have been on the rise. Earth’s temperature has risen by an average of 0.11 °F per decade since 1850 [4]. This change in temperature has caused intensified heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires. In addition, the melting of polar ice has caused sea levels to rise. These environmental impacts will result in a decrease of habitable and fertile land, negatively affecting humanity and many species of the world [5]. If the rate of oil consumption were to remain constant for the foreseeable future, the consequences would be dire. Rather fortunately, it seems we don't have a choice but to seek more sustainable alternatives.

    As it stands right now, oil is far too profitable to replace. The oil and gas industry is a multi-trillion dollar syndicate that holds immense power. In 2024, the oil and gas industry generated an estimated $3.5 trillion in revenues [6]. Alternatives such as wind, solar, and nuclear are not competitive enough to overtake oil's stronghold. Oil has an established infrastructure that has been building for more than 100 years now. Oil's extraction, trade, and usage has been brutally optimized to minimize cost and maximize profit [7]. Petroleum depletion is what will topple the oil industry. As oil become an increasingly limited resource, energy companies across the world will invest in sustainable alternatives. Even still, greenhouse gas emissions due to fossil fuel consumption should not be treated as a problem that will fix itself.

    As previously stated, there have already been irreversible environmental effects due to climate change. The sooner we are weaned off of fossil fuels, the better. If this transition away from fossil fuels happens too late, it spell bad news for both humanity and the planet. The accumulation of CO2 grows with each day. It is unknown when the rise in temperature will reach a tipping point that results in overwhelming climate change [8]. In addition, if the infrastructure of renewable energy has not been built up by the time oil is depleted, a good portion of humanity will be left without a stable energy supply. The renewable energy transition needs to happen now.

    This transition must be gradual, rather than abrupt. Completely cutting off the use of fossil fuels is not the solution.  As the technology for replacing oil improves, fossil fuels will continue to be consumed. The most practical solution is to continue consuming fossil fuels, but to do so in a green manner. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technology in this respect. Through CCS, CO2 from fossil fuel combustion is captured and transported to a long-term storage system rather than released into the atmosphere. In addition, goals should be set for reducing fossil fuel usage year by year, so that the transition to renewable energy is as smooth as possible.

    The implementation of reduced fossil fuel usage and CCS would have to be a matter of government regulation. There is next to no profit incentive for oil companies to implement CCS. As of 2024, only 44 power plants worldwide have completely implemented CCS. [9]. Compare that number to the over 17,000 fossil fuel power plants in operation [10]. There is also no sign of oil consumption slowing down, with demands steadily increasing every year [11]. 

    In what environmentalist Samantha Gross calls an “all-technologies-on-deck problem,” a gradual shift toward renewable energy is necessary. Government regulation will be required to facilitate this transition and ensure that new energy infrastructure is developed in time to replace fossil fuels. If this shift occurs too hastily or without environmental consideration, climate change will worsen and the global energy supply will be severely disrupted. The renewable energy shift will happen whether or not we are ready for it.