Do We Know All The Factors: What Climate Models Tell Us

 Clayton Yun

Professor Horgan

HST 401

11 March 2026

Do We Know All The Factors: What Climate Models Tell Us

Global warming, climate change, or whatever else you want to call it, the Earth is getting warmer. We always hear of the rising temperatures year by year, the melting of ice caps, and how much carbon emissions we produce. We even hear of climate models that simulate what will happen if things don’t change, even with claims that say if we don’t cut carbon emissions by 2030, we will be in the territory of irreversible damage and no turning back. But how do these climate models even work? How are they actually calculating these predictions?

Current climate models simulate the Earth’s climate and run the predictions using physical laws like conservation of energy, conservation of mass, thermodynamics, and fluid dynamics. They use them to describe variables like air temperature, pressure, the winds, water vapor, and the currents in the oceans. These models then divide the Earth into a three dimensional grid and calculate how energy and matter move between the grids over time, with greenhouse gas emissions, solar radiation, and ocean circulation, to simulate how these variables and factors interact with one another. 

Similar models to the ones that predict climate change also predict the weather. And as we have experienced, sometimes these models can be wrong and there is always that margin of error. But this is in the short-term aspect, for global climate change predictions and models that run what will happen years from now, how can we be so sure? The mathematics are there, but are we accounting for all the variables?

I believe that we are accounting for a lot of the necessary variables, but we are still missing a key factor. Climate models incorporate physics and chemistry in detail, but I believe that they miss a vital factor. 

The Biological factor. The numbers say we are on average increasing global temperatures by about 0.06 degrees Fahrenheit a year and have risen 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit since preindustrial times. For humans, prolonged exposure to temperatures of 80-90 degrees Fahrenheit, fatigue is common. From 90 to 120, heat exhaustion and heat stroke are possible. For 120 and above, you are very likely to get heat stroke.  With the wet bulb effect, humid weather and temperatures above 95 can become fatal within hours. Luckily, we are far from global temperatures consistently rising that high. However, what about all the other animals on Earth. What are their temperature limits and adaptability? 

In a new study done of about 2300 insect species across tropical regions in Africa and South America, researchers found that insects' heat tolerance does not increase with the environmental temperature. In addition, they found that many are already near their maximum heat limits and that their thermal plasticity or ability to adapt to the changes in temperature of the environment was correlated with the elevation they lived at in the tropical locations, with those higher up being able to increase their heat tolerance. Furthermore, the scientist compared insects heat tolerance alongside the thermal stability of the proteins in their cells and found that they were also correlated with their heat tolerance and plasticity. These with lower tolerance and adaptability to the temperatures had proteins in their cells that broke down and lost function at lower temperatures. This suggests that there may be a fundamental biological limit to how much these insects can adapt to the warming climate. 

Biodiversity lends to the Earth's habitable nature and somewhat self regulation of the Earth's health. The insects that buzz around from tree to tree, laying eggs in the bark are the same ones being eaten by the birds and so on. Insects, although small, make up the majority of the life we have on Earth and increase biodiversity. However, with rising temperatures, biodiversity is at risk, and the current climate models don’t account for it. I’m not saying that we’re doomed and that all climate models are completely wrong, I believe that we should playing it safer before we start regretting it and that the climate models should be incorporated with biological and ecological factors to help us better understand the risk and solution to our climate problem.

Works Cited

Carbon Brief. “Q&A: How Do Climate Models Work?” Carbon Brief,
https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-do-climate-models-work/.
Accessed 10 Mar. 2026.

Holzmann, Kim L., et al. “Limited Thermal Tolerance in Tropical Insects and Its Genomic Signature.” Nature, 2026,
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10155-w.
Accessed 10 Mar. 2026.

NOAA. “Predicting Climate: Climate Models.” Climate.gov,
https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/climate-data-primer/predicting-climate/climate-models.
Accessed 10 Mar. 2026.

University of Pennsylvania. “Climate Modeling.” Penn Environment,
https://environment.upenn.edu/news-events/news/climate-modeling.
Accessed 10 Mar. 2026.